In 1997, my Honours project paper was on pharmaceutical firms. Thus, I understood then that for a new drug to be developed, it may take years. This is because way before the human testing stage, it would have had to pass many different stages of testing so that it will be safe for human testing. Even here, the testing does not mean that it will surely go into production yeah. If it does not work as intended during human testing, then it will be back to the earlier stages.
So, when someone tells you that the COVID-19 vaccines will take between 12 – 18 months to complete, I will tell you that this is already considered super fast. Could this be made even faster then? Well, it could but the efficacy may be in doubt. Efficacy is defined as ‘the ability to produce a desired and intended result.’ Who said that they will have 1 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines by September 2020?
Article in bbc.co.uk Scientists at the University of Oxford say they should have at least a million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by September this year. The first patients are expected to take part in the Oxford trials next week. The UK government which is backing the project says that there were ‘no guarantees’ and that it was not possible to put any date on a vaccine.
There are approximately 80 groups around the world which are trying to develop a vaccine and some have begun human trials. Years of research work are condensed into months. Prof Sarah Gilbert, the lead researcher developing the vaccine, says she is 80% sure of their current research work. She said, “This is my view, because I’ve worked with this technology a lot, and I’ve worked on the Mers-vaccine trials [another type of coronavirus], and I’ve seen what that can do. And, I think, it has a very strong chance of working.”
Meanwhile, even at the current testing stage, plans are already in place to mass produce the vaccines. Prof Adrian Hill said, “The aim is to have at least a million doses by about September, once you know the vaccine efficacy results and then move even faster from there.” Please do proceed to read the full and comprehensive article here: Article in bbc.co.uk
What would the news of a COVID-19 vaccine going into mass production be for the world? Specifically the current negative sentiment? Well, it will help tremendously in the stock market as a start. However everyone must understand that all these so-called predictions or assumptions depend on the final results from the human trials. If it achieve the intended results, then the mass production news would be a catalyst.
If it does not, then many who bought with high hopes will now have to sell their shares at a loss. So, if we intend to believe these researchers in University of Oxford, then only buy some good stocks with spare cash and be prepared to hold until the actual good news come if September 2020 did not happen. By the way, I do think a vaccine will be found yeah. Just like the UK government, there is no guarantee about any dates until it happens. Happy following and continue hoping for the vaccine.
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