Oh dear. Lower GDP growth forecast for 2020. Positive number though.

Someone asked me some time back, how come news which many perceive as negative, my article may still have a positive spin to it. I think it’s really a perspective basis yeah. I know, bad news will ensure more clicks and I know that’s why many will post bad news on their FB post for example but I think I am ok to forego these kind of clicks / views. So, we have another piece of news which as usual everyone perceive as negative. Forecasted GDP growth for Malaysia has been lowered by Moody’s to 3%. The original number forecasted by them was 4.5% before it lowered the prediction to 4.2% in February 2020. Just one month later, it’s now 3%.

Article in themalaysianreserve.com Of the cut from 4.2% to 3%, this is what Moody’s senior VP Christian de Guzman said, “The combination of weaker global growth and heightened containment measures related to the coronavirus outbreak, as well as a recent sharp drop in oil prices, have prompted us to further lower our GDP growth forecasts for much of Asia Pacific (APAC) in 2020.”

Moody’s sees China’s (A1 stable) economy expanding 4.8% in 2020, Macau (Aa3 stable) is expected to drop 20% for 2020. Hong Kong (Aa3 stable) is expected to shrink by 3.5%. Moody’s said, “Meanwhile, we no longer expect Japan’s (A1 stable) and Singapore’s (Aaa stable) economies to expand.” Growth in Europe and the U.S is anticipated to decline as well. The global sentiment will be driven lower with a rising Covid-19 infection rate and this will snowball into a deeper economic contraction in Asia and beyond. Please do read the full Article in themalaysianreserve.com

If you still cannot see why I think our forecasted 3% is still a positive number, I shall not say any further yeah. Let’s hope this 3% is already on the low side. As for whether the current stimulus is good enough, I would personally prefer stimulus number 2 as well. It may be more prudent to do more than to do less just to be prudent on the deficit number.

Another example of a different perspective? Covid-19 numbers for Malaysia. A few people kept posting and saying that the numbers are going up so fast and that we are doomed. Yet, refused to even acknowledge that our death rate remains on the low side even when compared to many advanced nations.

By the way, it’s just 0.7% for Malaysia thus far. 10 deaths per 1306 total infected. (South Korea at 1.17% and Japan at 3.41%). Info Source here. I used these two countries because people kept using these two as comparison that our doctors and nurses are not as good as theirs which is totally untrue! Someone even commented that we did not test enough people. Sir… if we tested even more people, this number will be even lower… Please ask some statisticians to understand what I meant.

Then, some will now pull politics in and say something about the now super famous Health Minister. It’s as if this person is the one affecting all these numbers? Dear everyone, the MAIN REASON why our numbers are low is BECAUSE of the profesionalism of doctors, nurses and the management team of Health Ministry and has VERY LITTLE to do with the new government or that new Health Minister. Savvy? Still, no one knows what may happen but I will continue to pray that our COVID-19 numbers will always remain on the low side and that all our front-liners are safe from harm. As for the Health Minister, please stay at home. Thank you.

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