Would falling demand in 2016 cause a potential of a property bubble? Well,I read this from an article in a foreign owned media a few days ago. I disagree, at this juncture. First question, is it true that there are no more demands? Second question, is it true that every property we can find whether primary or secondary is already beyond the affordability of every one of us? Third question, has the unemployment risen so much that it has caused the non-performing-loans to suddenly spike? Fourth question, which country in the world would be causing the next financial crisis? Well, to be serious, based on all the usual stats and even the growth for 2016, Malaysia is unlikely to be the country to start it all. Some signs for potential property bubble? Read here: Spotting signs of a property bubble, 3 points (updated)
To answer all the three questions above, the demand remains huge because of our population demographics. The earliest Malaysia becomes an ageing nation is 15 years away. Read here: Malaysia – Ageing population – Stats and Steps Of course, even with an ageing population, as long as the population is a growing one, demand would continue. Perhaps one worry is only our birth-rate which has fallen a lot these few years. Read here: 2015: Fertility rate dropped to 1.9 for Malaysia Lastly, please do ask around, many among the working adults have yet to own a home.
Second question. There is certainly no truths in that every single property is so expensive or that majority of couples are struggling to buy a home, unless of course everyone of them must buy only a certain type of property and only within a certain area. For them, I wish them the best. Read here: Sometimes, secondary property is a better choice
Third question. Unemployment has not yet risen to a worrying level even if last year, some in the banking sector lost their jobs and this year, many more from the oil & gas are losing their jobs. In case you believe oil is going to face a bleak future until the end of the world, read what Warren Buffet is doing here: Falling oil price and actions of Warren Buffet A further check in JobStreet.com.my showed job numbers remain huge and shortage is continuing for many areas and specialisations.
There are however some good information within that article worth noting and sharing. Foo Gee Jen, WTW’s managing director said, “Going into 2016, we see headwinds and home buyers will remain cautious.” In fact he said there is an oversupply of premium apartments with many “shoebox” units unoccupied. Foo added that developers would need at least a year to clear these units before building more. Next year, another 13,000 high-rise apartments are entering the already bearish market. Read my personal comments on small units here: The big idea for small units, be real
Happy anticipating. In case you believe this is a wait-and-see year, read here: Flat 2016? Good 2018, 2019 and great 2020?
written on 26 Jan 2016
Next suggested article: Lower transactions and property value in 2016
Leave a Reply